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    宁夏十一选五开奖直播: 物流与供应链(英文).ppt

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    物流与供应链(英文).ppt

    A Strategic Framework for Supply Chain Design, Planning, and Operation,Syllabus,Outline,What is supply chain management A supply chain strategy framework Seven Eleven Japan,Traditional View Logistics in the Economy 1990, 1996,Freight Transportation 352, 455 Billion Inventory Expense 221, 311 Billion Administrative Expense 27, 31 Billion Logistics related activity 11, 10.5 of GNP.,Source Cass Logistics,Traditional View Logistics in the Manufacturing Firm,Profit 4 Logistics Cost 21 Marketing Cost 27 Manufacturing Cost 48,Supply Chain Management The Magnitude in the Traditional View,Estimated that the grocery industry could save 30 billion 10 of operating cost by using effective logistics and supply chain strategies A typical box of cereal spends 104 days from factory to sale A typical car spends 15 days from factory to dealershipLaura Ashley turns its inventory 10 times a year, five times faster than 3 years ago,Supply Chain Management The True Magnitude,Compaq estimates it lost 0.5 billion to 1 billion in sales in 1995 because laptops were not available when and where neededWhen the 1 gig processor was introduced by AMD, the price of the 800 meg processor dropped by 30PG estimates it saved retail customers 65 million by collaboration resulting in a better match of supply and demand,What is a supply chain,Customer wants detergent and goes to Jewel,Jewel Supermarket,Jewel or third party DC,PG or other manufacturer,Plastic Producer,Chemical manufacturer e.g. Oil Company,Tenneco Packaging,Paper Manufacturer,Timber Industry,,,,,,,,,Chemical manufacturer e.g. Oil Company,,,Flows in a Supply Chain,Customer,,,,Information,Product,Funds,Supply Chain,Cycle View of Supply Chains,,Customer Order Cycle,,Replenishment Cycle,,Manufacturing Cycle,,Procurement Cycle,,Customer,,Retailer,,Distributor,,Manufacturer,,Supplier,Push/Pull View of Supply Chains,,,,Procurement,,Manufacturing and,Replenishment cycles,,Customer Order,Cycle,,Customer,Order Arrives,,PUSH PROCESSES,,PULL PROCESSES,Examples of Supply Chains,Dell / Compaq Toyota / GM / Ford McMaster Carr / W.W. Grainger Amazon / Borders / Barnes and Noble Webvan / Peapod / JewelWhat are some key issues in these supply chains,What is Supply Chain Management,Managing supply chain flows and assets, to maximize supply chain surplus. What is supply chain surplus,The Value Chain Linking Supply Chain and Business Strategy,New Product Development,Marketing and Sales,Operations,Distribution,Service,Finance, Accounting, Information Technology, Human Resources,Business Strategy,New Product Strategy,Marketing Strategy,Supply Chain Strategy,,,,Achieving Strategic Fit,Understanding the Customer Lot size Response time Service level Product variety Price Innovation,,,Implied Demand Uncertainty,Levels of Implied Demand Uncertainty,,Low,High,Price,Responsiveness,Customer Need,Implied Demand Uncertainty,Detergent Long lead time steel,High Fashion Emergency steel,Understanding the Supply Chain Cost-Responsiveness Efficient Frontier,,,High,Low,Low,High,Responsiveness,,Cost,Achieving Strategic Fit,Strategic Scope,,,,,,,,,Suppliers,Manufacturer,Distributor,Retailer,Customer,Competitive Strategy,Product Dev. Strategy,Supply Chain Strategy,Marketing Strategy,,Drivers of Supply Chain Performance,Considerations for Supply Chain Drivers,Supply Chain Decisions Structuring Drivers,,,,Strategy Design,Planning,Operation,Syllabus,Major Obstacles to Achieving Fit,Multiple owners / incentives in a supply chainIncreasing product variety / shrinking life cycles / customer fragmentation,,Increasing implied uncertainty,,Local optimization and lack of global fit,Dealing with Multiple Owners / Local Optimization,Information CoordinationContractual Coordination,Dealing with Product Variety Mass Customization,Mass Customization,,,,High,High,Low,Low,Long,Short,Lead Time,Cost,Customization,Fragmentation of Markets and Product Variety,Are the requirements of all market segments served identical Are the characteristics of all products identical Can a single supply chain structure be used for all products / customers No A single supply chain will fail different customers on efficiency or responsiveness or both.,Tailored Logistics,Each Logistically Distinct Business LDB will have distinct requirements in terms of Inventory Transportation Facility Information Key How to gain efficiencies while tailoring logistics,Applying the Framework to e-commerce What is e-commerce,Commerce transacted over the Internet Is product information displayed on the Internet Is negotiation over the Internet Is the order placed over the Internet Is the order tracked over the Internet Is the order fulfilled over the Internet Is payment transacted over the Internet,Existing Channels for Commerce,Product information Physical stores, EDI, catalogs, face to face, Negotiation Face to face, phone, fax, sealed bids, Order placement Physical store, EDI, phone, fax, face to face, Order tracking EDI, phone, fax, Order fulfillment Customer pick up, physical delivery,Revenue Impact of E-Commerce,Length of supply chain Product information Time to market Negotiating prices and contract terms Order placement and tracking Order fulfillment Payment,Cost Impact of E-Commerce,Facility costs Site and processing cost Inventory costs Cycle, Safety, Seasonal inventory Transportation costs Inbound and outbound costs Information sharing Coordination,Seven Eleven Japan,,Seven Eleven - Number of Stores,1999 8,027,Seven Eleven - Net Sales,Seven Eleven - Pre tax Profit,Seven Eleven - Inventory days,Japanese Images of Seven Eleven,Convenient Cheerful and lively stores Many ready made dinner items I buy Famous for its great boxed lunch and dinner On weekends, when I was single, I went to buy lunch and dinner,Key Product Categories,Processed Foods 50 Fresh Foods 30 Non Foods 20 ,Store Description,Average size 100 sq. m. 1,000 sq. ft. about 1/3 of typical US store Average sales 700,000 Yen about twice average US store SKU’s offered in store Over 3,000 change by time of day, day of week, season Virtually no storage space,Supply chain Objective,Micro matching of supply and demand by location, time of day, day of week, season,Facilities Strategy,Have many outlets, at convenient locations, close to where customers can walk When they locate in a place they blanket the area with stores; stores open in clusters with corresponding DC’s 844 stores in the Tokyo region; Seven Eleven has 5,523 stores in 21 prefectures,Information Strategy,Quick access to up to date information as contrasts with data High speed data network linking stores, headquarters, DCs and suppliers Store hardware Store computer POS registers linked to store computer Graphic Order Terminals Scanner terminals for receiving,Information Analysis of POS Data,Sales analysis of product categories over time SKU analysis Analysis of waste or disposal Ten day week sales trend by SKU Sales trends for new product Sales trend by time and day List of slow moving items Contribution of product to sections in store display,Distribution Strategy,Delivery arrives from over 200 plants Delivery is cross docked at DC over 80 DCs for food Food DCs store no inventory Combined delivery system frozen foods, chilled foods, room temperature and hot foods 11 truck visits per store per day compared to 70 in 1974 No supplier not even coke delivers direct,The Future,7-eleven growing rapidly in the US 7-eleven aims to be a web depot in both the US and Japan. Does this make sense from a supply chain perspective,Summary,Two views of a supply chain A strategic framework Achieving fit -Efficiency/Responsiveness and Supply chain drivers Tailored logistics E-commerce framework 7-eleven,47,Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain,Forecasting and Aggregate Planning,48,Learning Objectives,Phases of supply chain decisions Identify components of a demand forecast Time series forecasting Estimate forecast error Aggregate planning in the supply chain,49,Supply Chain Decisions,Strategy or design Forecast Planning Forecast Operation Actual demand Production Scheduling, inventory control, aggregate planning Marketing Sales-force allocation, promotion, new product introduction Finance Plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning Personnel Workforce planning, hiring, layoffs,50,Characteristics of forecasts,Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts Forecast horizon Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,51,Demand Forecast Involve Factors,Past demand Planned advertising or marketing efforts Display position in a catalog State of the economy Planned price discounts Actions competitors have taken,52,Forecasting Methods,Qualitative Subjective, human judgment Little historical data Experts have market intelligence Time Series Past demand history is a good indicator of future demand Static; Adaptive Causal Correlation between demand and environment factors Simulation Imitate the customer choices,53,Basic Approach to Demand Forcasting,Understand the objective of forecasting Integrate demand planning and forecasting Identify the major factors that influence the demand forecast Understand and identify customer segments Determine the appropriate forecasting technique Establish performance and error measures for the forecast,54,Components of an observation,Observed demand O Systematic component S Random component RMultiplicative S L T seasonal factor Additive S LT Seasonal factor Mixed S LTseasonal factor,,,Level current deseasonalized demand,,Trend growth or decline in demand,,Seasonality predictable seasonal fluctuation,55,Time Series Forecasting,Forecast demand for the next four quarters.,56,Time Series Forecasting,57,Forecasting methods,Static Adaptive Moving average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s model with trend Winter’s model with trend and seasonality,58,S (LT) SeasonalityL Estimate of level for period 0;T Estimate of trend per period;St Estimate of seasonal factor for period tDt Actual demand observed in period tFt Forecast of demand for period t Ftl [ L t l T ] Stl,Static Forecasting methods,59,,For p even,For p odd,P periodicity,Estimating Level deseasonalized demand,60,,P 4, t 3,Example,Excel File,61,,Linear Regression,62,,Estimating Seasonal Factor,Seasonal Cycles,63,,Forecast for the Next Four Quarters,64,Adaptive Forecasting methods,Lt Estimate of level at the end of period t; Tt Estimate of trend at the end of period t; St Estimate of seasonal factor for period t; Ft Forecast of demand for period t for period t; Dt Actual demand observed in period t; Et Forecast error observed in period t ; At Absolute deviation for period t |Et |,65,Initialize L0 T0 S0;ForecastEstimate errorModify estimate,Four Steps,66,Systematic component Level;,,,,Moving Average,67,,,,Simple Exponential Smoothing,Systematic component Level;,68,,,,,,,,Trend-Corrected Exponential Smoothing Holt’s Model,Systematic component of demand Level trend;,69,Systematic component of demand LevelTrend Seasonal factor,,,,,,,Trend-and Seasonality-Corrected Exponential Smoothing Winter’s Model,70,Error measures,71,NATURALGAS.com,72,Aggregate Planning at Red Tomato Tools,73,Fundamental tradeoffs in Aggregate Planning,Capacity regular time, over time, subcontract Inventory Backlog / lost sales Basic Strategies Chase strategy Time flexibility from workforce or capacity Level strategy,74,Aggregate Planning,75,Aggregate Planning Define Decision Variables,76,Aggregate Planning Define Objective Function,77,Aggregate Planning Define Constraints Linking Variables,Workforce size for each month is based on hiring and layoffs,78,Aggregate Planning Constraints,Production for each month cannot exceed capacity,79,Aggregate Planning Constraints,Inventory balance for each month,80,Aggregate Planning Constraints,Over time for each month,Excel File,81,Scenarios,Increase in holding cost from 2 to 6 Over time cost drops to 4.1 per hour Increased demand fluctuation,82,Increased Demand Fluctuation,83,Managing Predictable Variability,Manage Supply Manage capacity Time flexibility from workforce OT and otherwise Use of seasonal workforce Use of subcontracting Use of dual facilities-dedicated and flexible Designing product flexibility into the production processes Manage inventory Component commonality Seasonal inventory of predictable products,84,Managing Predictable Variability,Manage demand with pricing Original pricing Cost 422,275, Revenue 640,000 Demand increase from discounting Market growth Stealing market share Forward buying Discount of 1 increases period demand by 10 and moves 20 of next two months demand forward,85,Off-Peak January Discount from 40 to 39,Cost 421,915, Revenue 643,400, Profit 221,485,86,Peak April Discount from 40 to 39,Cost 438,857, Revenue 650,140, Profit 211,283,87,Demand Management,Pricing and Aggregate Planning must be done jointly Factors affecting discount timing Product Margin Impact of higher margin 40 instead of 31 Consumption Changing fraction of increase coming from forward buy 100 increase in consumption instead of 10 increase Forward buy,88,Performance Under Different Scenarios,89,Factors Affecting Promotion Timing,90,Summary of Learning Objectives,Forecasting Aggregate planning Supply and demand management during aggregate planning with predictable demand variation Supply management levers Demand management levers,91,Factors Influencing Discount Timing,Impact of discount on consumption Impact of discount on forward buy Product margin,92,Inventory/Capacity tradeoff,Leveling capacity forces inventory to build up in anticipation of seasonal variation in demandCarrying low levels of inventory requires capacity to vary with seasonal variation in demand or enough capacity to cover peak demand during season,93,January Discount 100 increase in consumption, sale price 40 39,Off peak discount Cost 456,750, Revenue 699,560,94,Peak April Discount 100 increase in consumption, sale price 40 39,Peak discount Cost 536,200, Revenue 783,520,4/12/2019,S. Chopra/Inventory,95,Planning and Managing Inventories in a Supply Chain,Optimal Matching of Supply and Demand,4/12/2019,S. Chopra/Inventory,96,Outline,The role of inventory in the supply chain Why hold inventory Economies of scale Batch size and cycle time Quantity discounts Short term discounts / Trade promotions Stochastic variability of supply and demand Evaluating service level given safety inventory Evaluating safety inventory given desired service level Levers to improve performance,4/12/2019,S. Chopra/Inventory,97,Role of Inventory in the Supply Chain,Overstocking Amount available exceeds demand Liquidation, Obsolescence, Holding Understocking Demand exceeds amount available Lost margin and future salesGoal Matching supply and demand,

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